Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:51 PM CDT
EIU discussion on Iraq remembers the history war
By ROB STROUD, Staff Writer
rstroud@jg-tc.com
CHARLESTON — President George W. Bush led the United States into the ongoing war in Iraq, but the chain of events that led to his decision started in 1979 or even earlier.
University of Illinois Professor John Vasquez traced this chain of events, which he referred to as a spread or diffusion of wars, during a presentation Wednesday evening at Eastern Illinois University.
“The war in Iraq then was not just a decision by George W. Bush, but occurred in a large structure of diffusion,” Vasquez.
Vasquez looked back to the overthrow of the shah of Iran, a U.S. ally, in the 1979 Islamic revolution in that nation. He said academic studies have shown nations that experience radical revolutions have a higher probability of ending up at war with their neighbors.
Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein tried to take advantage of the weakened state of neighbor and long-time rival Iran during a subsequent war, Vasquez said. The war killed approximately 1 million people and collapsed into a stalemate, he said.
Other studies have shown wars between nations that do spread tend to spread to their neighbors, Vasquez said. He discussed Iraq’s 1990 invasion of its neighbor Kuwait.
Hussein owed Kuwait a tremendous amount of money it borrowed during the Iran war and considered Kuwait to be rightfully part of Iraq, Vasquez said. Hussein thought the United States would not interfere in a conflict between two Arab nations, he said.
“(Hussein) thought he could get away with it because he made a misjudgment,” Vasquez said. The professor added the United States would not let a larger nation invade a smaller nation, particularly an oil rich ally.
Vasquez said the United States under President George H.W. Bush marshaled a large group of allies to push Iraq out of Kuwait.
A series of smaller military actions between Iraq and the United States occurred after the Persian Gulf War, Vasquez said. Actions included President Bill Clinton retaliating for Hussein plotting the assassinate former President Bush, he said.
“One thing leads to another if we take diffusion seriously,” Vasquez said, referencing the current war in Iraq. “It is in a sense a decision that was in the cards already.”
The professor cited academic studies that show wars, and civil wars, tend to cluster in time and place. Vasquez said he considers fighting in Iraq to be part of a civil war. He warned the conflict could spread to its neighbors.
After the presentation, EIU history faculty member Charles Titus said Vasquez’s theory about the diffusion of wars is interesting. Titus said Vasquez’s theory would have been strengthened if he presented more examples of diffusion occurring as well as some counter examples in which it did not happen.
Audience members asked Vasquez what would have happened regarding Iraq if Democrat Al Gore had won the presidency or what would happen if a Democrat wins the upcoming presidential election.
Vasquez speculated Gore would have focused on overthrowing the Taliban in Afghanistan for their role in the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and avoided war with Iraq. Still, he said Gore might have been hard pressed to resist the chain of small military actions with Iraq that were leading to a larger war.
In addition, Vasquez said the ongoing war in Afghanistan presents a daunting challenge for any president. He said the only reason there is no civil war in Afghanistan is that it is divided among warlords. He said a civil war could occur once the central government become stronger and this war could draw in Afghanistan’s neighbors.
“Wars are a leap in the dark. The more things you think about before you do it, the better off you will be,” Vasquez said.
Contact Rob Stroud at rstroud@jg-tc.com or 348-5734.
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The Question wrote on Apr 17, 2008 9:06 AM: