Thursday, April 3, 2008 9:08 PM CDT
COLUMN: Democrats could implode if Clinton or Obama is bullied out before Democratic Convention
By HARRY REYNOLDS, Editorial page editor hreynolds@jg-tc.com
Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi admitted Monday superdelegates have a right to vote as they wish at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Aug. 25-28.
“These superdelegates have the right to vote their conscience and who they think would be the better president, or who can win, but they also then should get involved in the campaigns and make their power there known,” Pelosi said.
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton are in a tight race for delegates. Obama has 1,632 delegates to Clinton’s 1,500. It takes 2,024 delegates to win the Democratic nomination for president.
Left to fight it out in the remaining primaries, neither Obama nor Clinton will go into the convention with enough delegates to win the nomination.
There are also the delegates from Florida and Michigan, currently denied their seats because they voted too earlier. There may be, and should be, a fight for them to vote. Millions of voters cast their ballots in those primaries.
Pelosi echoed the fear of some high-ranking Democrats that the party cannot afford to wait until the convention to settle on a nominee.
Stirring objections recently from Clinton supporters and other groups, Pelosi sided with Obama’s view the 800 superdelegates should be guided by the vote for pledged delegates.
Pressure for Clinton to quit the race before the Pennsylvania, North Carolina and other major primaries are completed has been met lately by people inside and outside the party demanding the primary contests run their course.
Leaders of women’s political organizations such as the National Organization for Women resent the efforts to force Clinton out of the race. Many women feel they have waited long enough for a woman to move into the Oval Office.
Obama is now insisting he thinks Clinton should remain in the race as long as she wants. This contradicts what Obama has been doing behind the scenes.
Of course, he doesn’t want Clinton to continue her fight. There’s no guarantee he will win the nomination if she does.
If Clinton wins Pennsylvania, she will put a dent in Obama’s armor. If she also wins North Carolina, she could really hurt Obama’s assumption of entitlement to the nomination.
Democratic leaders and some of the 800 superdelegates have been tempted to step into the fight before the convention.
There are a host of reasons why they should keep their noses out of it. A good, clean fight in August would not hurt the Democratic nominee’s chances against Arizona Sen. John McCain in the fall.
What scares top Democrats has little to do with when the convention is held. What they fear is a split in the party if this thing goes to the point where Clinton or Obama supporters — or both — really get mad.
If Clinton is perceived by women to being bullied to quit, the party will pay.
If Clinton wins the nomination and blacks think Obama was cheated at the convention, the party will pay.
Either way, a split can only work to McCain’s advantage.
Another argument for the race continuing to the convention is this:
Assuming Clinton narrowly held the lead in the popular and delegate vote (as is the case now with Obama) and party officials tried to pressure Obama to drop out.
There would be a hellish backlash. Blacks would get mad, a rightly so. A realistic proposition given they’re gone for Obama in most of the primaries by 70 percent or more.
It would only justify the rabid rants by Obama’s pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright against whites and “g-damn” America.
Viewed with dispassionate eye, Democratic Party leaders are more inclined to alienate the majority of women voters than all the black voters.
A rather racist way to look at it. If Clinton wins and blacks perceive it to be fair, they will vote for her in the general election. Maybe in smaller numbers. maybe some of them will stay home.
I’ve admitted to being a Democrat since childhood. But, if the fight for the nomination is cut short before the convention in the name of unity, I’m not sure what I’ll do in November.
But, there will be a whole lot of Democrats who might bolt the party.
Recently, a reader said he thought I was a Republican because of my support of the war, distrust of government and affection for rampant individualism. Up to the point of my being a Republican, he is right.
Republicans support the Bush administration’s propensity for snooping, and they insist party members march in lock-step on social and religious issues.
They call Democrats tax-and-spend liberals while their president triples the national debt, runs up a huge budget deficit, chases the economy into the tank, seeks to impose Big Brother on the American people and guts habeas corpus.
Republicans are too willing to trade our freedoms for a security not to be found in this world.
There’s a name for Republican philosophy. It’s called hypocrisy.
But, they’re a lovable bunch of rascals.
The only way McCain is going to win the presidency in the fall is if the Democratic Party implodes.
Which is a real possibility if the Democratic primary race doesn’t go to the convention.
Trust in the process. That’s the essential ingredient for a Democratic victory in November.
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Early Bird wrote on Apr 4, 2008 5:36 AM: